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The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.
Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.
2020:Q2 Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast
The COVID-19 pandemic has created tremendous global uncertainty and widespread economic disruptions. Actions taken to stop the spread of the virus have led to business closures in many industries and record numbers of individuals filing for unemployment. This research brief presents results from the Louisiana Forecast Model and Louisiana Regional Employment Model to assess the most likely impact on key economic indicators under several potential scenarios.
The baseline projections, and even the most optimistic projections, are highly unfavorable at this time. Much like the national economy, Louisiana is projected to experience a recession more severe than the economic impacts of Hurricane Katrina and the Great Recession. Projections point towards a recovery that will be slower than the nation and may last until 2022. The Baton Rouge and New Orleans metro areas are expected to have the strongest recovery in the state, while the Lafayette and Houma-Thibodaux regions are projected to the have the weakest recoveries.
Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19.
Click here to subscribe to receive the Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast by email when published.
2020 Report Release Schedule
Second Quarter: May 20, 2020
Third Quarter: August 19, 2020
Fourth Quarter: November 20, 2020